Kansas City, along with the Bengals and 49ers, all boast an over/under of 11.5 in the , while just three other teams, the Bills, Jaguars, and Eagles, are expected to win more than 10 games.
The Chiefs have won at least 12 games in all five seasons with reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes under center and navigated the most difficult schedule in the league last season to 14 wins and a Super Bowl trophy.
On the other side of the spectrum, the Texans and Cardinals project for the fewest amount of wins at 5.5. Houston is fresh off a 3-win campaign, and has failed to win more than four games in each of the last three seasons.
Arizona meanwhile, is likely going to be without starting QB Kyler Murray for the entire year, while they re currently shopping their top-skilled position player DeAndre Hopkins.
Odds as of March 27 at .
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Buccaneers Biggest Faller Since Last Season
What a difference a year makes. At this time in 2022, the Buccaneers had a win total of 11.5, the highest in the NFL. They were fresh off a Super Bowl victory and an NFL Divisional Round berth in back-to-back seasons, and Tom Brady had just announced he was coming out of retirement for one more championship run.
Fast forward to today and Tampa Bay sports the third-lowest win total at 6.5. Brady has once again retired, while the team is starting to look a little long in the tooth. Even with TB12 at the helm last season, the Bucs offense was abysmal. They averaged just 18.4 points per outing, and don t expect a big improvement with Baker Mayfield now running the offense.
Baker Mayfield: “Listen, I’m never gonna be Tom Brady. There’s a reason he’s won so many Super Bowls. He’s the greatest of all time. There’s no doubt about that. I’m not gonna try to be Tom. I’m gonna be me. That’s what’s gotten me to this point…”
JennaLaineESPN (@JennaLaineESPN)
Mayfield is on his fourth team in three years and is fresh off posting the worst QBR of his career in 2022. The offensive line is full of question marks, and most of the prominent defensive players who led them to a Super Bowl in 2020 are either gone or have regressed statistically.
To make matters worse, the Bucs schedule for the upcoming season is incredibly daunting. They catch a break by drawing the AFC South but still have to deal with the Jaguars, Bills, Eagles, Vikings, and 49ers.
Jaguars Biggest Riser
No team saw a bigger increase in their 2023 win total from last year than the Jaguars. Jacksonville sported an over/under of 6.5 wins at this time last year and promptly went out and won the AFC South and a Wild Card playoff game.
Expectations are sky-high for Jacksonville this season, and it s not hard to figure out why. The move to hire Doug Pederson after the Urbay Meyer debacle was critical to the Jags 2022 success. One is a Super Bowl-winning coach, while the other was disgraced from the college ranks.
2021 number one pick Trevor Lawrence looked like a lost cause under Meyer, but in just one season Pedeson has Lawerence playing like a future MVP candidate. Lawrence threw for over 4,100 yards in his sophomore season and produced 16 more total touchdowns than in his rookie campaign.
The Trevor Lawrence-Calvin Ridley duo will be deadly next year 🔥
PFF (@PFF)
Signing Christian Kirk and Evan Engram were home runs for Jacksonville, and their offense will be even more potent in 2023. That s because Calvin Ridley is set to join the squad after a year-long suspension. Ridley is a legitimate number-one receiver, and gives the Jags a fantastic outside threat to complement what Kirk and Engram do over the middle of the field.
Another reason to believe the hype on Jacksonville is the soft schedule they ll play. The rest of the AFC South appears to be in total rebuild mode, as do three-quarters of the NFC South who they ll match up with out of conference. It shouldn t surprise anyone if the contests against those two divisions alone yield eight to 10 victories.
Fade the Rams
One team we should be looking to bet against is the Rams. Last year they opened with a win total of 10.5, but after an injury-riddled campaign their 2023 win total is 7.5.
On paper that may seem low, but I prefer to make the argument that it s not low enough. For starters, Matthew Stafford s injured elbow remains a major concern. It knocked him out of the ladder part of last season, and it s still not back to 100%.
Reports emerged early this week that the team was open to trading Stafford, and that may be a good thing for his sake. Aside from Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald, the talent cupboard is extremely bare for the Rams.
LA Rams 2022 DVOA Ranks
